Boise State -7 over Fresno State
From 1-11 last season to 8-3 this year, Fresno State’s turnaround under first-year head coach Jeff Tedford has been one of the top ‘under-the-radar’ stories of 2017. Defense has been the primary reason for Fresno’s seismic shift as the Bulldogs are allowing just 17.3 points per game to rank 12th nationally after giving up 30.9 points per game one season ago. On Saturday, Fresno hosts perennial Mountain West power Boise State in both teams’ regular season finale.
Oddly enough, after not playing each other for 1,135 days, the teams will meet twice in a week’s span as they will square off in the MWC Championship Game, most likely in Boise, in seven days. While Fresno’s story is among the best in all of college football this season, its only notable victory has been a 27-3 mid-season win at San Diego State. Its strength of schedule ranks just 108th.
Boise State, meanwhile, is in its preferred point spread role as the Broncos are 38-17 against the spread as an away favorite since the start of the 2007 season. Take Boise and lay the 7 points.
Paul Stone has over two decades of experience as a bettor and handicapper. He is a winner of multiple Las Vegas handicapping contests and his work has appeared in various media outlets including the Las Vegas-Review Journal and ESPN Insider. Follow Paul on Twitter@paulstonesports or e-mail him at Paulstonesports@gmail.com.
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