MLB Home Run Leader a Longshot at Vegas Sports Books

Players returning to the big leagues after serving suspensions for performance enhancing drugs are a mixed bag – some return and do well while others struggle. One player who is not struggling post-steroid suspension is Nelson Cruz, who won last year’s MLB home run crown and currently leads MLB in round trippers early on in 2015.

Nelson Cruz has already hit 8 long-balls this season and is 3 clear of second place with several players chasing Cruz tied at 5 home runs. At the start of last season, The Las Vegas Super Book listed odds on Cruz at 60-1 to lead MLB in home runs. Cruz emerged as a live long shot in 2014, battling Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Abreu, who opened at 8-1 and 40-1 odds respectively. In the end it was Cruz, with a career high 40 round-trippers, who claimed his first home run title….and rewarded his backers at the sports book who cashed at 60-1 odds.

Nelson Cruz Opened the Season at 60-1 Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs

So, what should sports book odds be in 2015 for a defending home run champion to lead MLB in round trippers again? 10-1? Perhaps 12-1? Nope……and not even close. A whopping 60-1 number was listed next to Nelson Cruz on the MLB Home Run Leader Odds Sheet prior to the start of the MLB season. Avisail Garcia and Evan Gattis (both 50-1) had lower odds than Cruz!

Many, including yours truly, factored in the move to Safeco Field (a tough place for home run hitters) as well as Cruz’ propensity to hit the disabled list as reasons to pass on betting on him……even at 60-1. In hindsight, it would have been justified to throw at least a small play given the big 60-1 number.

Nelson Cruz – Early MLB Home Run Leader in 2015

A home run champion is not made in April, so it will be interesting to see how everything pans out. But if Cruz stays healthy, he should stay in the thick of MLB home run race and provide some fun for those that backed him at 60-1. It’s always worth taking a look at player props – bargains usually abound…including a defending home run champ at long shot odds to repeat.

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