The curious case of betting on the Yankees using the “opposite” pattern.
If you’ve followed me on twitter, you already know the old Sunday tweet during baseball season: “Whatever the Yankees do on Saturday, bet the opposite on Sunday.” It’s been a profitable approach. Why? It’s hard to say…is it a circadian rhythm issue amongst ball players? Too much party time in New York City? I don’t have an answer, but the pattern sure held true in 2016. Betting on the Yankees on Sunday to do the opposite of what they did on Saturday hit at a nearly .700 clip last baseball season: 18-8 to be exact.
Whatever the Yankees do on Saturday, Bet the Opposite on Sunday
The whole “bet the opposite on Sunday” isn’t a bold claim – in fact, using just the 2016 season is a small sample size. So before someone tears this theory apart, know that I’ve been following this for the last 5-6 years with a certain level of success. Will it continue? Who knows. However the pattern hitting at a 70% clip over a 26-game sample size last season is far too high a percentage to just be a coincidence. It would be curious to see if the “bet the opposite on Sunday” phenomenon goes back to the Babe Ruth days….perhaps there’s someone out there with more time to spare than I have that can investigate. For now, I’ll continue to ride the “bet the opposite on Sunday” train in 2017.
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Because my Saturday nights are so exciting, I ran the numbers using Baseball-Reference.com’s data. I didn’t go back to Babe Ruth’s days — even I have limits to my attention span — but I looked at 2000 to present. I excluded weekends with Saturday or Sunday doubleheaders. If one were to bet the opposite of Saturday’s result on Sunday, here’s the end of season records:
2000: 13-9
2001: 15-10-1 (NYY tied BAL 1-1 in 15 innings Sept. 30 (rain))
2002: 15-11
2003: 9-13
2004: 12-13
2005: 15-11
2006: 13-11
2007: 11-14
2008: 9-14
2009: 15-10
2010: 15-10
2011: 8-13
2012: 13-9
2013: 17-8
2014: 10-15
2015: 15-9
2016: 17-8 (your numbers say 18-8; I can’t find the difference)
Overall, last 17 years: 222-188-1, a winning bet 54.15% of the time. Seems like a sound strategy to me.
You’re the man Travis….thanks