College Football Free Picks Rundown

***Oklahoma State -3.5 vs Baylor

There was some luck involved in Baylor’s 3-point home win vs an overrated Iowa State team this past Saturday. Iowa State’s offense managed 479 total yards vs Baylor’s 282 and the Cyclones nearly doubled Baylor’s total first downs (27-15). Oklahoma State’s defense is top 20 in the NCAA for yards allowed per game (303). Baylor’s offense will not have it easy on the road this week. OK State is the play.

***UNDER 62 Utah State vs BYU

I was not at all impressed with BYU’s home performance vs South Florida and I expect their defense, who allowed big holes vs an undersized yet moderately speedy South Florida offense, to bounce back here. Utah State had nothing go right for them in a bad loss to Boise State – their first loss of the season. The Utah State defense provided some effectiveness vs Boise State and should be inspired for this rivalry game. Since 2019, BYU has gone under the total 58% of the time when favored.

***Notre Dame +2.5 vs Cincinnati & Under 50.5

I do not see Cincinnati’s offense going nuts in this road spot and I trust the Notre Dame defense more. In Cincinnati’s last 8 games vs ranked opponents, only one has gone over the total (88% to the under). On the ground, Cincinnati is averaging a strong 5.4 yards per attempt. However, the rubber meets the road as they will face the toughest defense so far on their schedule – and Notre Dame’s defense has been effective vs the run allowing just 3.1 yards per rush over their last 3 games. No track meet here….a close game that will stay under the total.  

***Oregon State -2 vs Wash

Since 2019, Beavers are 7-2 (77.8%) ATS after a win and 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in Pac 12 play. Oregon State showed nice athleticism on the road vs USC and are playing with confidence. Oregon State came close at Husky Stadium last year losing by less than a TD after a Washington field goal in the 4th quarter. This is the best shot Oregon State has had in the past 5 years to beat Washington – I think they do it at home vs a Washington team that is 5-9 (35.7%) ATS in Pac 12 play since 2019.

***Kansas vs Iowa State over 56.5

After a loss, Kansas has gone over the total in 14 of their last 17 games. Kansas and Iowa State hold a healthy 5.8 and 6.1 yards per play respectively this season. Iowa State should take care of business at home but Kansas will have some offensive success that will push the game over the total.  

***Oregon -8 at Stanford

In Stanford’s last 10 games coming off a loss, they are 2-6-2 (25%) ATS. Oregon’s CJ Verdell should have no problems gaining big yards vs a Cardinal rushing defense that is ranked #110 in the NCAA. Lay it.   

***Arkansas +19 at Georgia

The Arkansas offense is #14 in the nation with 7.0 yards per play yet Georgia’s defense is #1 in the country allowing just 3.1 yards per play. One has to consider however, that Georgia’s defense has bullied offenses that flat out stink. Below is each of Georgia’s opponent’s yards per play (YPP) and overall NCAA ranking in that category:

Georgia Opponents: Yards Per Play/NCAA Rank in that category

Clemson (3.7 YPP/#124 in NCAA)

UAB (5.1 YPP/#79 in NCAA)

S Carolina (4.5/#104 in NCAA)

Vanderbilt (3.8/#121 in NCAA)

In the Kirby Smart era (since 2016) Georgia is 12-17 (41.4%) ATS as a home favorite.

Additional Plays

***SMU -20.5 vs S Florida

***Wash State +7.5 at Cal

***Liberty +1.5 at UAB

***Northwestern +10.5 at Nebraska

***UNC Charlotte +11 at Illinois


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