MLB Free Pick Monday

Underdog Play: Brewers at Orioles +140

Brewers hitters have been notoriously bad vs lefty pitchers (2021 + first few games of 2022) and I see no reason why all of a sudden they will pound Orioles SP Bruce Zimmerman today. Zimmerman generally throws a lot of ground balls and has a swinging K rate that is on the rise – several points higher than his opposing pitcher today. Albeit he was shaky in the spring, Zimmerman’s K rate was still strong – a good sign.

The wind is blowing out today in Camden Yards – however both Zimmerman and Brewers SP Adrian Houser serve up a lot of ground balls so the wind may not be a factor. Houser though doesn’t miss a lot of bats and his swinging strike rate has been on a downward trajectory. He has a sub .500 record in day games and this will be his first time pitching in Baltimore. The Orioles deserve to be underdogs here but the Brewers are a very beatable favorite in this situation.  The O’s may just give their fans something to cheer about on opening day in Camden Yards.

The Play: Orioles +140   

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