MLB Free Pick Wednesday

MLB Free Pick

Orioles +224 vs Yankees

The wind will be blowing out today in Yankee Stadium. Orioles righty Tyler Wells and his 6.75 ERA is expected to get shellacked by the Bronx Bombers today and the line shows it. The fact that Wells gives up a lot of fly balls is another reason the number is where it is.

Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery is off to a decent start and his 2.51 ERA reflects it. However, like Wells,  Montgomery is also prone to giving up fly balls and a couple of Orioles batters have taken Montgomery deep in the past. Also, Wells has been much better than Montgomery in getting ahead of hitters with a +70% first pitch strike rate – this will serve him well as he faces aggressive Yankees batters today.

New York bats have heated up and they of course should be favored here. But the +224 number is just way too high. There’s value in the underdog here and we are taking a shot with the O’s today.

The Pick Orioles +224

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