Swinging for the Fences: Analyzing MLB Season Player Home Run Bets – Unders
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan looking to add an extra layer of excitement to the season, betting on MLB player home run totals is a great way to enjoy the season and have some betting action on America’s Past Time. In this article, we’ll look at four players that I like to go under their 2024 home run total.
Paul Goldschmidt, St Louis Cardinals (2024 HR Over/Under Total: 26.5)
Goldschmidt’s home run total sits at 26.5 at both DraftKings and MGM: It seems like yesterday that Goldschmidt came up with the DBacks and started smashing homeruns at Chase Field. But, he is now 36 years old and we are starting too see some signs of decline. Last season, his batting average against 4-seam fastballs, usually the type of pitch with the most velocity, was his lowest in the Statcast era at .241. In his career, he’s been right around the .300 range on that type of pitch. Sportsbooks seem to be applying 2021 or 2022 numbers to an aging power hitter. A .270 25 HR 90 RBI season is nothing to sneeze at, but looking purely at the home run number, 26.5 is just too high – especially when you mix in the injury risk that comes with a player turning 37 this season. Under.
Paul Goldschmidt
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (2024 HR Over/Under Total: 25.5)
I think Buxton’s Home Run total, which is currently at 24.5 at Draftkings with Stations Casinos in Las Vegas posting Buxton’s Over/Under HR total at 25.5, is very optimistic given the 30-year old’s almost guaranteed IL time. What’s more, Buxton has cleared this 25.5 number only once in his 9-year career when he went on a tear and hit 28 round trippers in 2022 until injury shortened his season once again. His Home run per fly ball percentage took a plunge last year down to 15%. Buxton averaged a 26% Home run to fly ball rate over the last 3 seasons before that. There are already signs of diminishing power, and when you add the historical injury risk – he hasn’t cleared 400 at bats since 2017; under 24.5 is the play.
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds 2024 Over/Under HR Total: 21.5
De La Cruz, the freak of nature 6-5 200 pound uber athletic Cincinnati shortstop, is listed at 21.5 home runs at MGM. He’s an exit velocity darling of the Statcast crowd but for me, there’s a bunch of red flags in terms of his potential home run number this season. He hit 13 homeruns in 98 games last season – 338 at bats. His total of 21.5 basically projects out to 162 games. De La Cruz has a lot to work on from a contact standpoint, he sported a contact rate percentage in the low 60s in 2023. The ground ball rate is also a problem as over 50% of balls he hits are grounders and that’s always going to cap home runs. The Reds have enough talent in their infield that if De La Cruz struggles, I think the leash will be short – especially being that he’s so young. I’m taking the under 21.5 home run number here.
Elly De La Cruz
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2024 Over/Under HR Total 34.5
Junior’s home run total is listed at 33.5 at Bet MGM and for those of you that have access to Las Vegas, Stations has Vlad Junior’s. listed HR total at 34.5. Vladdy Jr. hit ZERO home runs to right center last season. Maybe it was the new dimensions at Rogers Center? Fences came in but the height of the outfield walls were raised and many players saw a reduction in home run numbers. He says he played through a knee injury last year – I believe he probably did and reports are he’s in better shape this spring down in Florida, however the whole narrative of “he modified things in the offseason and changed his body” doesn’t really resonate with me. You either have the skills or you don’t. Don’t get me wrong here, Vlad Jr. has skills and it would not be a surprise to anyone if he hits 30 home runs and drives in 100 runs this year – but that still doesn’t get him to 35 round trippers and I think his home run total is just too high – especially given the fact that his changed batting approach has set a new baseline for where he hits home runs and how the lack of power to right center could very well cap him to a great home run level – but not an outstanding one. Under 34.5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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