A New York Yankees Trend

A New York Yankees trend that I’ve shared via Twitter over the past 2 MLB seasons rolls on in 2014……

MLB betting trends aren’t always in plain sight. Sometimes, it takes discovering one by accident or merely by coincidence based on an event or simple curiosity (i.e. how many times has team X won their first game on the road after a winning home stand)?  

I look at trends in some cases but it’s not typically a way I base my bets on. In my opinion, there just are too many variables when it comes to most trends and it is hard to figure out which ones can be profitable long term.  That said, some trends are downright just fun to follow and after a chance encounter at a Las Vegas sports book with a salty character from New York (Brooklyn to be exact), there is one trend in MLB that has been “money” for the past two seasons. That amounts to nearly a 50-game sample.

It is a quite simple trend to follow really, and there is no logical reason for this trend to continue, however, it may be worth riding for a while. A little background on how I started following this particular MLB trend – I was sitting at the Harrah’s sports book on the Vegas strip a few years ago and struck up a conversation with a gentleman in his mid 60’s, salt and pepper hair sticking out of his navy blue Yankees cap. He was chomping on an unlit cigar as he looked over the Racing Form and soon enough, we struck up a conversation about baseball. After talking a little sports and exchanging notes on what teams we liked for the evening of sports betting, it was time for me to meet my wife for lunch. As I was getting up to leave he stopped me as if he had forgotten to tell me one last important thing (turns out, it was kind of important although I didn’t know it at the time).  He said, in his moderately distinguishable New York accent, “kid, a little tid-bit for you – whatever my Yankees do on Saturday, bet the opposite on Sunday.”

Whatever the Yankees do on Saturday, Bet the Opposite on Sunday

Whatever the Yankees do on Saturday, Bet the Opposite on Sunday











As far as making friends or simply meeting interesting people at a Vegas sports book, well, that’s a trend that should continue for a very long time; but as far as the particular Yankees trend? Well, I tucked it away in my head and loosely followed what the Yankees were doing on the weekend. Turns out, my friend from Brooklyn may have been on to something.

Over the past 2 MLB seasons, the Yankees are doing the opposite on Sunday of what they did on Saturday pretty often. In 2012, this trend went 15-10 (60%) and in 2013 the trend went 17-8 (68%). Rain-outs excluded.  

A couple of things with this – first, is that the money line in baseball betting has to be taken into account, however that can create nice plus money line opportunities on either the Yankees or their opponent when betting with this trend. Second, when the Red Sox are involved, the trend is a little less powerful as it is offset by a Red Sox team that has the opposite tendency over the past 2 seasons – contrary to the Yankees, the Red Sox tend to do the same thing on Sunday as they did on Saturday.

Trends can be used to identify good spots to look at closely and then fire away if it makes sense to you. When it comes to the Yankees, betting the opposite on Sunday of what they did on Saturday has been the play the last two seasons. How is it going so far early in the MLB season?  The weekend split trend is 2-1 (66%) early on in 2014.


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