Baseball Free Pick
Reds (+162) at Braves (-174)
Today’s Reds starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has performed much better away from his home diamond at Great American ballpark: Mahle has a career 3.72 ERA on the road, which is over a point lower than his home ERA. Mahle also comes out of the gate strong holding a 10.3 K per 9 inning mark in April over his career.
On the Braves side, lefty starter Max Fried has dominated current Reds batters (.076 BA) albeit in a small sample size.
Fried has been unimpressive in March/April throughout his career: 4.96 ERA & 1.478 WHIP
Fried did not look particularly sharp in the pre-season – which could mean something or nothing. No doubt he’s one of the top pitchers in the NL, but it’s my feeling it will take him a few starts to get going. There’s some value in the run line for the Reds (+1.5 -126) and a sprinkle on Reds +162 is acceptable.
The play: Reds +1.5 (-126)
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