MLB Home Run Player Props

2023 MLB Home Run Player Props (Over/Under)

Odds via SuperBook

Eloy Jimenez (White Sox) O/U 21.5 HR

Jimenez has never reached 500 at-bats in his 4-year career. After a hamstring injury limited the White Sox outfielder to only 292 at-bats in 2022, he still managed 16 home runs – with 8 of those coming in the month of September alone. A career high 41% fly ball rate in September also shows that he’s adjusted his launch angle, which translates to more home runs. Realistically, given his underlying power numbers, he should crush the posted over/under season home run number of 21.5. The fact that he hasn’t played a full season 2-years running (Covid season excluded) is the rub. Avoiding the injury bug, a fit Eloy Jimenez could double the odds maker’s HR total. Take the Over.

Kyle Tucker (Astros) O/U 28 HR

Tucker’s contact percentage and walk rate are both on an upward trend. Combined with his already solid hard contact percentage and high barrel rate, this creates a rare combination of skills. The power is there and the increased contact will only elevate the home run number. He’s hit 30 home runs in 2021 and 2022 respectively, so you are not asking him to do something he hasn’t done yet. He’s durable (only one IL stint in his career due to Covid) and he’s entering his prime. Tucker is a strong bet to comfortably clear 28 home runs. Take the Over.

Jose Abreu (Astros) O/U 22.5 HR

Abreu is coming off of the highest ground ball rate (48%) of his career. Exit velocity when he hit off-speed pitches also took a dive last season. Abreu will still be a productive hitter, but the new reality in his underlying numbers as well as the new ballpark won’t be conducive for the power he showed early in his career.  Guaranteed Rate Field (White Sox) was a top five homerun park for righty batters over the past 3 years…Minute Maid was #13 over that same period. Take the Under.

Starling Marte (Mets) O/U 14.5 HR

Marte has missed over 60 games the past two seasons and his hard hit rate of 25% was the lowest of his career in 2022. Combine that with a 50% ground ball rate, my expectation is that his power will continue to decline…Marte might actually steal more bases than he hits homeruns in 2023. Marte is a good player with still a lot to offer, but the homerun total posted by odds makers is low for a reason. Take the Under.  

Willson Contreras (Cardinals) O/U 18.5 HR

Only injuries will keep Willson Contreras from hitting 20 homeruns this season. At age 31, his hard contact rate is on the upswing, which is typical as catchers mature. Contreras has hit 24, 21, and 22 homeruns over the past 3 full seasons – and that’s averaging only 400 at bats per year. The departure of Albert Pujols may also help with Contreras getting some extra at bats at DH on some of the days he gets a break from catching duties. Take the Over.