March Madness Picks: Day 1 (Thursday)

The Vegas Parlay’s Buzzer Beater First Round March Madness Selections for Thursday….

Thursday March 21, 2019

Louisville -5 (vs Minn) Battle tested through the ACC gauntlet, Louisville’s high percentage free throw number along with big questions about Gopher’s guard play make the Cardinals the pick here.

Yale +7.5 (vs LSU) Yale’s strong perimeter defense should give LSU’s already subpar 3-pt game problems. Naz and his Tigers win but won’t cover in a close one.

Vermont +5.5 FIRST HALF (vs Fla State) Betting against Florida State in the first half has been a favorite fade of mine all season. Why stop now? Vermont matches or exceeds Florida State in several metrics, including limiting turnovers and the all-important free throw percentage.

Michigan State -18.5 (vs Bradley) If you’re looking for an upset/underdog look elsewhere. Sparty rolls here.

Northeastern +7 (vs Kansas) Northeastern is a much better ball control team than Kansas and will also limit turnovers. Northeastern as a team is strong from the charity stripe at 75%. +7? Me likey.

Marquette -3 (vs Murray State) Avoid the “hook” and get -3 at Treasure Island. The Golden Eagles are undervalued here taking on a sexy #12 in Murray State.  Marquette is a better free throw team and unlike Belmont’s nightmarish performance vs Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference final, Marquette will hit their 3-point shots and cover the number.

Abilene Christian +13.5 FIRST HALF (vs Kentucky) The Kentucky front court will be too much for ACU, but Abilene can shoot the 3 and play the ball control game to keep it close……for a while at least.

St. Mary’s +4.5 (vs Villanova) This is not the same St. Mary’s team that lost 4 straight in November stumbling out of the gate. The much improved Gaels will slow the pace and should give Villanova (3-6 ATS in last 9 games) a run for their money. Expect a very close game here. Take the points.

Montana vs Michigan UNDER 61 First Half  Both teams are busts at the free throw line which is important when taking the under. Montana has shown a propensity to shoot the 3, but that was against Big Sky competition. The Wolverines are the toughest defensive squad, by far, Montana will face all year and 3s will not come easy, especially in the “feeling out” period early in the game.

Wofford -1 (vs Seton Hall) Wofford is an ATS machine in these situations: 9-1 ATS when favored on the road or on a neutral court, 12-6 ATS coming off of multiple days off, and 13-4 ATS away from home overall. Wofford will have no problem scoring on a Seton Hall team that has allowed their opponents to score 70 or more points in their last 7 games. Plus, that Wofford Terrier logo is as bad ass as it gets.

Baylor vs Syracuse Under 131.5 Both teams are similar in various metrics, however Baylor has the edge rebounding as well as defensively. This against a Maryland team that has withered vs strong defenses. Both teams are a combined 17-21 to the under when playing on several days rest. Baylor has lost 4 in a row and will face a Jim Boeheim squad that is 2-5 straight up in their last 7 games, with 3 of those games having the Orange score 55 points or less. I’m concerned about a good offensive effort from either team in Salt Lake Thursday night. Take the under here.

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