Red Sox at Twins 7:40 pm Eastern
Twins SP Pablo Lopez endured a slew of injuries early in his career, but after an injury free 2022 and his current average fast ball velocity sitting at 95 MPH (highest in his career), his arm is sound. Lopez gets a home start vs. a Red Sox team coming off of a double-header sweep of the Yankees yesterday – this includes game 2, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball game, that ended at 9:30pm Eastern Time last night. Lopez’ record of 3-3 with an ERA of 4.27 doesn’t jump off of the page, however many of his underlying statistics (WHIP, swinging strike rate) are trending in the right direction. He’s also getting ahead of hitters, which will be helpful tonight vs. a Red Sox lineup that struggles away from Fenway (.228 road batting average). Red Sox starter James Paxton has owned the Twins over his career (2.27 ERA and 1.07 WHIP lifetime) and comes into this game fully cranked striking out 25 over his last 18 innings pitched. Furthermore, the Twins are struggling mightily vs lefties in 2023, hitting .220 vs southpaws – second worst in all of baseball. The wind will be blowing in from right at Target Field tonight, which is an added bonus for those, like myself, who see this game going under the total with a pair of solid pitchers poised to give strong performances.
Bets: Under 4.5 (-120) first 5 innings (Circa) & Under 8 full game
Cubs at Pirates 7:05 pm Eastern
Cubs hitters enter today’s game vs. the Pirates holding the highest soft contact rate (20.4%) in MLB over the last 2 weeks. Chicago is also last in ISO (a metric used for measuring power/XBH) over the same period – they simply are not hitting the ball with authority at the moment. Pirates rookie SP Osvalso Bido did well against these same Cubbies in his MLB debut last week, inducing a lot of ground balls while striking out 6 over only 4 innings. The Pirates are a top-10 hitting team vs. lefties and had no problem handling today’s Cubs starter LHP Drew Smyly last week – the Bucs tagged Smyly for 5 runs in 6 innings, including 3 homeruns. I’ll back the Pirates at home today but I’m not messing with their bullpen, so a first 5 inning play on the home team at a plus number is the play.
Bet: Pirates +112 (first 5 inn)
Speak Your Mind