Marlins at Nationals
Nationals hitters are making good contact vs lefties over the past 30 days. Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo is carrying an 0-4 record and an ERA over 6.00 in day games so far this season. Nate starter Patrick Corbin has seen better days and his inflated ERA of 4.81 is justified by his underlying numbers.
Bet: Over 4.5 (first 5 inn)
Red Sox at Yankees
Yankees SP Luis Severino is carrying the lowest swinging strike rate of his career and although he’s still throwing hard (fast ball average is 96 MPH+), his secondary pitches just aren’t there yet. Red Sox hitters leave a lot to be desired, but their ISO (power metric) numbers are strong – a homer or two may be in play tonight for Boston as Severino is allowing nearly 3 HRs per 9 innings. On the flip side, Red Sox starter Brayan Bello is stingy giving up the home run ball and he’s been masterful at inducing ground balls – he’s approaching a 60% ground ball average so far in 2023, which is important in the band box ballpark that is Fenway.
Bet: Red Sox -140
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