Astros (-110) at Blue Jays (+100) 4:07pm pacific (Rogers Centre Toronto)
Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez continues to be Houston’s workhorse – he’s as reliable as they come. Valdez has allowed only one run over his last 22 innings pitched and that success is likely to continue today vs a Blue Jays team whose hitters hold one of the worst slugging percentages vs. lefty pitchers in MLB – worse than the Tigers and the A’s incredibly. Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios is having a nice season, especially over his last 3 games, allowing only 2 earned runs. There are a couple of red flags, which I feel can be an issue today vs Astros hitters, who are carrying a .845 OPS over the last 10 days. Berrios’ OPS vs lefty batters this season is .818 – which bodes well for the likes of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Also, Berrios is due for some regression given recent swinging strike rate and base on ball numbers. Look for the Astros to get the W in the final game of this 4-game series.
The Play: Astros -110
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