Marlins at Nationals 4:05 PM Eastern
My bets on MLB teams at -150 or more are few and far between but I have a lot of confidence in Marlins SP Braxton Garrett today and no confidence at all in Nationals starter Jake Irvin. Marlins hitters hold a sky-high ISO away from Miami (ISO is a power/slugging metric). This matchup is ripe for Marlins hitters to have success today. The Nationals are bottom of the league in walks vs. lefties and Garrett has walked only 2 batters while recording 22 strikeouts over his last 16 innings pitched. I’ll back the Marlins with multiple plays to cash today.
Bet: Marlins -165 and Marlins -1.5 (+100)
Cardinals at Mets 4:10 PM Eastern
As good as Mets SP Kodai Senga has been, he is increasingly showing command issues evidenced by his 5.5 walks per 9 strikeouts average so far this season. Despite the win/loss record, Cardinals hitters are heating up – they are starting to clobber righty pitchers as well, hitting 16 homers vs RHP over the last 2 weeks. That’s good for third in all MLB. If Senga’s wild side appears today, and I think it will, getting behind in the count could be problematic. Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has stayed in the league one year more than he should’ve. His 1.72 WHIP in 2023 and putrid swinging strike rate makes it hard to make a case that he will be effective. He’s also allowing the highest fly ball rate (41%) of his career. The wind is blowing in from left center today at 17 MPH, yet Vegas has slightly juiced the over to -115 after opening at -110. There’s a reason.
Bet: Over 9 Runs
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