Rockies at Reds 4:10 PDT – It’s a small sample size (13 innings) but Rockies starting pitcher Noah Davis has a strong ground ball lean (61%) to start off his MLB career. It will serve him well today vs Reds hitters that are top-10 in MLB when it comes to hitting fly-balls. Davis has struck out 10 batters in the 9 innings he’s pitched away from Coors Field as well – there’s some talent here. When favored at home, as they are today, the Reds are 63.6% to the under (7 unders in 11 games). The Rockies average 3.7 runs per game on the road – near the bottom of the NL and they face an improving starting pitcher in Ben Lively today.
Bet: Under 5.5 (first 5 inn) & Under 10.5 -115 full gm (MGM)
Braves at Phillies 3:40 PDT – It’s not so much that I see Braves starter Spencer Strider pitching well today (I think he will), it’s more about Braves bats in today’s matchup. Atlanta hitters crush southpaws. They are number one in all but one of the major statistical hitting categories vs lefties. The only exception is on-base percentage, where they are second by .2 percentage points to the Rangers. Phillies lefty starter Ranger Suarez has put together a strong season so far but it’s important to note that some of his underlying numbers (i.e. swinging strike rate of 9.3%) do not translate to dominant. Also, it’s important to note is that Suarez has thrown 100+ pitches in each of his last 3 starts – the first time he’s been asked to do that in his career.
Bet: Braves -150
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