Super Bowl Prop Plays – Our Picks

Las Vegas Super Props Plays

The number of Super Bowl props available at Las Vegas sports books like the Westgate SuperBook, Golden Nugget, William Hill, MGM, Caesars, and Boyd properties can be dizzying. There are several hundred prop bets made available every year for Super Bowl and this year’s offerings from Las Vegas sports books provide a plethora of scenarios for bets within the game.

The following are a few Super Bowl prop bets available in Las Vegas that are not only interesting, but also potentially profitable. The plays will be reviewed after Super Bowl to see how well we did.

For entertainment purposes only……

***The following props selections provided by Tommy Lorenzo***

TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) **(If no Rushing Attempt–Under is the winner)

OVER 41.5 -110

UNDER 41.5 -110

The highest total Russell Wilson has rushed for in his last 6 playoffs games is 26 yards. Also in those last 6 playoff games, Wilson is averaging just 16 yards rushing per game – this includes one game where he rushed for zero yards. Yes, he is mobile, but the playoffs are a different animal…..reflected by the aforementioned yardage numbers.   The Play: Under 41.5 -110


 **(Suns/Warriors–January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 7:40 pm Pacific STEPHEN CURRY (GS) 3 POINT FG’S MADE +0.5 -130 PATRIOTS+SEAHAWKS MADE FIELD GOALS -0.5 +110

Stephen Curry is making 2.9 three-pointers per game so the number on the above prop seems correct. However, if you dig a bit further, stats reveal that Curry is hitting over 50% of his shots beyond the arc while averaging 4.1 three-pointers per game when he is playing on zero days rest – as will be the case on Saturday night prior to Super Bowl. In Curry’s last game vs. Phoenix, he launched 10 three-point shot attempts, which is his 3rd highest total of the season. All signs point to Curry letting some “threes” go Saturday night vs the Suns and hopefully there is quality (made 3-pointers) to go along with quantity. On top of all that, The Suns are 23rd in the NBA when it comes to opponent’s 3pt FG percentage.        The Play: Stephen Curry Made 3 point FG +0.5 -130


 **(Cal, Washington, Utah & USC–February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:30 am Pacific PAC 12 TEAMS POINTS -20.5 -110


The four listed Pac-12 teams average anywhere from 65 (Cal) to 75 (Utah) points per game. Based on all 4 averages, one can expect a total of around 276 combined points, but considering the -20.5 points you have to lay, you are looking at 255 points. I think there will be some scoring in the Super Bowl, but I don’t see monster rushing numbers being put up against 2 strong defenses – at least not enough for a combined 250+ rushing yards.    

The pick: Pac 12 Teams points -20.5 -110


***The following props selections provided by guest contributors T. Rothlisberger and M. Vergeer***


**(If no Reception–Under is the winner)

OVER 8.5 +140

UNDER 8.5 -160

In 2014 Turbin had more than 8.5 receiving yards in only 7 of 18 games. The majority of these games were blowout wins where Seattle would replace Lynch with Turbin in order to give Lynch a break. Seattle will not be resting Lynch in this game though so Turbin will likely be very limited in his playing time.  Turbin has only 1 catch for -2 yards in the playoffs so far and that’s with a blowout win against Carolina.     The Play: Turbin Total Receiving Yards Under 8.5

What will the New England Patriots do First – Score or Punt?

Score +120

Punt -150

The Patriots might seem to be a team that comes out firing on all cylinders from the get go, but when you actually look at it they seem to come out of the gates a tad “deflated.”  Now that I got a lame joke in there let’s take a look at the numbers.  In the Pats 18 games in 2014 they have scored offensively before they have punted in just 5 contests.   Even more, the teams where the Bengals, Chargers, Jets, Bears, and the Colts who they scored against.  Not exactly a murderers row of tough defenses.  In fact, not a single of those finished the season as a top 10 defense according to Football Outsiders.  Now they face the number one ranked defense in the National Football League. As long as the Seahawks special teams or offense don’t do something stupid I would say we have a good shot at cashing.     The Play:  Punt -150

Will there be an onside kick in the game?

No -180

Yes +150

Onside kicks happen in just about 20% of NFL games.  Moreover you know which teams attempt them? Teams losing by more than one score at the end of the game.  These teams are also known as below average squads. Take the 2014 teams who have attempted the most onside kicks – Raiders, Jaguars, and Chicago.   In 2013 it’s more of the same with the Falcons, Titans, and Oakland topping the list.  In fact, neither Seattle or New England has attempted an onside kick this year according to Sporting Charts. With the spread hovering around pick ’em, this should only increase our chances of the game staying close and avoiding the onside kick.   The Play:  No -180

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